RNY Market Watch: October 2026

Welcome to our newest edition of Market Watch! We’re here to provide you with the latest insight into the coffee “C” market, supply outlook & more as of October 2026.

Coffee Futures and Market Outlook

Coffee futures have settled down from the volatility we saw during the transition from the Sept’26 “C” contract to the Dec’26 contract. In early July, the market surged nearly 50 cents in a single day, despite little fundamental news coming from the industry. Following that sharp move, prices gradually settled back down, although the market continued to trend higher before reaching a recent high of $3.4565 on August 25.

Since then, prices have pulled back and appear to have found some stability in the $2.85–$2.95 range but overall, the market has struggled to break through the psychological $3.00 level and hold above it. Whenever prices begin to rally, producers have been taking advantage of higher levels to sell their coffee, creating resistance and pushing the market back down. For now, this has kept prices within a relatively narrow trading range.

Why the “C” Market Has Stabilized

The market is currently between two competing forces: a bearish longer-term supply outlook and signs of tighter nearby availability.

Brazil’s Coffee Supply and the Bearish Market Outlook

On the bearish side, Brazil has increased exports over the past several months, and projections point to a potential surplus of approximately 10 million bags for the 2026/27 crop. These factors suggest that global coffee supply should improve as more Brazilian coffee reaches the market.

Low Certified Stocks and Nearby Supply Concerns

On the other hand, nearby supply remains a concern. Exchange Certified Stocks are low, and ongoing logistical constraints are slowing the movement of coffee to its final destinations. Until more coffee reaches consuming countries and makes its way into certified warehouses, the market may continue to feel tighter than the broader supply outlook suggests.

Technically, the market has been moving sideways, bouncing between established support and resistance levels without making a sustained move in either direction.

One of the biggest lessons from the past year is that the market needs to see supply materialize before it fully reacts to the outlook. News of Brazil’s record crop has been circulating for some time, yet prices have not experienced the substantial decline many might have expected. The market needs to see it to believe it, and Brazil remains the key player in this equation.

Where Can the Coffee Market Go from Here?

Looking at the longer-term picture, the market appears to be leaning slightly bearish as more Brazilian coffee becomes available. Increased supply should eventually put downward pressure on prices, provided that the coffee reaches the market as expected.

How Speculative Trading Can Affect Coffee Prices

However, there is another factor that cannot be ignored: speculative trading. Over the past couple of years, speculative traders have demonstrated a significant ability to move the “C” market, sometimes pushing prices higher even when the underlying fundamentals suggest they should be falling.

This means that a bearish supply outlook does not guarantee an immediate decline in coffee futures prices. Unexpected rallies and sharp swings remain possible.

Certified Stocks and Brazilian Coffee Arrivals

Moving forward, certified stock levels and the pace at which Brazilian coffee reaches the market will be critical indicators to watch. An increase in certified stocks would help confirm that supply is catching up with demand and could strengthen the bearish outlook. If stocks remain low, however, concerns about nearby availability could continue to support prices.

What Does This Mean for Coffee Roasters?

Despite the favorable longer-term supply outlook, roasters should remain cautious. The market can move quickly, and prices do not always follow the direction suggested by the fundamentals.

The nearly 50-cent rally we experienced on a single day in early July is a clear reminder of how quickly the market can change. Even with the prospect of a large Brazilian crop, speculative buying or continued concerns about nearby supply could push prices higher in the short term.

The key is to stay informed and have forward coverage of your most important coffees – especially with the holidays coming. Most roasters, if not all have benchmarked their wholesale and retail prices to consumers based on a $3.00 market or higher, possibly much higher.

Stay focused on available supply of dwindling centrals and washed milds. With Brazils lagging to market, they’re moving faster.

For help figuring out which coffee to reserve and for how long, reach out to one of our green coffee traders and check out our recent updates to RNY Bean Logic®.