RNY Market Watch: July 2025 Coffee Tariffs Update

Welcome to our latest edition of Market Watch! We’re here to provide you with the latest insight into the “C” market, how tariffs will impact coffee prices, and more as of July 2025.

2025 Market Volatility

Coffee futures as measured by the NY “C” market continue to experience notable fluctuations in 2025. Since our last update, the “C” has made a substantial correction lower, closing at roughly $2.9800 on July 15th, 2025. This price is a significant reduction from the $3.7500 market we reported on in May, and even more so from its peak of $4.4085 on February 13th. Dramatic volatility and wide daily trading ranges continue to define the “C”, but a coffee market that starts with a $2 rather than a $4 takes some of the pressure off the importing/roasting/manufacturing part of the trade.

Unfortunately, the “C” market is not the only significant variable in the pricing matrix these days. Tariffs, both the universal 10% and the pending reciprocal tariff rates continue to impact coffee prices and create uncertainty when purchasing, planning, and pricing coffee.

Where will the market go next?

“Really hard to say” is an understatement. There are too many new variables to consider. When we last reported on the market in May, the primary challenge was the influence and buying power of speculative traders pushing the “C” beyond a natural price range. At one time, the speculative long position was almost 70k lots. They’ve since liquidated a substantial percentage of their position, with roughly 15k longs as of Friday, July 11th. By liquidating a significant portion of their position, specs brought the market down almost $1.00/lb., again highlighting the power they have to move a market.

Taking a quick peak into origin news, Brazil’s new crop harvest is progressing well. Estimates say the harvest is roughly 70% complete with no frost or other weather threats to report. This is great news, considering how much time we’ve spent in an exaggerated weather market over the past two years.

To that point, we’re still in frost season, which will be quickly followed by drought season in Brazil—the two common weather threats monitored by the trade. If we get through this roughly three-month period with uneventful forecasts, there could be more positive news that might pressure the market lower. Alternatively, we could get a cold weather scare that fuels another spike to the upside, but only time will tell.

We will continue keep a pulse on the more classical challenges facing the coffee trade. However, we must focus on the ongoing challenges and expenses of the U.S. administration’s rapidly changing tariffs on imported goods.

Tariffs & Coffee Prices

If you need a refresher on how the tariffs came into play, here’s an excerpt from our May 2025 update:

Along with a fluctuating market, the coffee industry (as we’re all aware) he been learning to manage and absorb tariffs on coffee imports! On April 2nd, The Trump Administration rolled out sweeping tariffs on imports from most countries. These tariffs are broken into two categories: a “Universal” 10% tariff on all imports and a more targeted list of “Reciprocal” tariffs, ranging from 10–125% depending on country of origin.
Shortly after the April announcement  the 90-day pause was set to expire on July 8th, but just before the deadline came, the administration pushed the effective date of the “Reciprocal” tariffs to August 1st. It also added additional tariffs to countries previously at 10%.

The most concerning for the coffee trade is a 50% Tariffs on Brazil active 8/1. Brazil, which produces just shy of half of the world’s coffee,  pivoting away could be very challenging, especially if the other Latin American coffee producing countries still have a 10% tariff. The best we can hope for now is a negotiation to a lower, more manageable rate….but the clock is ticking.

The Impact of Coffee Tariffs

As of now, the next key date is August 1st, when the updated timeline for reciprocal tariffs takes effect. If implemented as proposed, coffee-producing countries like Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam could face dramatically higher tariff percentages, potentially shaking up sourcing strategies for roasters across the U.S.

In the meantime, the 10% universal tariffs remain fully in effect. Tariffs are being incurred and paid daily. When Royal New York receives a tariff bill via an import form called the “7501,” we must pay to release our freight and then apply the cost, in full, to the lot associated with that specific tariff invoice. Tariff impact can and will range from $0.30 up to $0.60+ per lb., depending on the value of the coffee and percentage rate of the tariff.

Working through Coffee Tariffs & the “C” Market

So, where does this leave us buyers, sellers, cuppers, and roasters? Well, at Royal New York, we are looking for any opportunity to inform and support our clients. We monitor the evolving tariffs and regulations daily to keep you informed as soon as any tariff impact becomes reality. Our goal is to communicate clearly and quickly so you can make any necessary adjustment to your pricing models or sourcing plans.

Monday through Friday, we’re here to answer the phones and troubleshoot these disruptions as your trusted partner. We understand these are new and challenging times; this is a first for us as well. That said, call with any questions, sourcing, and pricing concerns. We have a broad view of the industry and can help you plan your next steps with confidence.

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