RNY Market Watch: February 2026

Welcome to our first edition of Market Watch for 2026. We’re here to provide you with the latest insight into the arabica coffee “C” market price, 2026 supply outlook & more as of February 2026.

Global Coffee Market Overview

As we enter the new year, the coffee market appears to be entering a transitional phase after 2+ years of tight supply and record volatility. Global news and crop estimates, especially concerning Brazil, increasingly point to improving supply as 2026 progresses. As a result, prices have begun to cautiously retreat as industry focus shifts from tariffs and market highs to possible supply recovery.

Coffee Supply and Production Outlook

Analyzing price activity of any financial market comes with a landscape of variables. While coffee is no different, we do have one influencing variable that eclipses the rest: the forecast, harvest, and tallying of the annual Brazil crop.

Right now, we are approximately less than three months from the start of the 2026/27 Brazilian harvest, and the outlook has improved significantly over the past month. The current estimate for the combined arabica and robusta harvest could exceed 70 million bags, with the arabica output potentially showing significant increase from last year due to the past month’s rainfall.

Other significant producers, such as Honduras and Nicaragua, have been seeing healthy supply for this season. Colombia has seen slightly lower production, but that is following an exceptionally strong year.

Vietnam, which primarily produces robusta, is also having a rebound year for the production and export of their crop. However, Indonesia, and more specifically, Sumatra, is struggling to get coffee to market after the devastating cyclone in late November 2025.

Overall global production, fueled by sustained high prices, is forecasted to increase. While that is the good news our industry has been waiting for, we still have plenty of challenges to work through.

Market Structure and Price Outlook

As we reported regularly in 2025, the market has maintained historically high prices for a record period of time. Additionally, the futures market remains in significant backwardation, which is when the forward contract months are trading at a significant discount to the “spot” or “front” month. Backwardation in coffee signals short-term supply issues with forecasted longer-term improvement.

The coffee market found itself in Backwardation for the first time since 1998 and spent more time in backwardation over the past two years than any time in history. This current backwardation was born from global supply deficits from weather events, followed by declining certified stocks, and the impact of U.S. tariffs. As global production, exports, and certified “ICE” stocks increase, the market should continue to decline based on a more secure outlook for coffee availability. We have already started seeing the decline with the market making a six-month low on Friday, 1/30 at $3.31. While this is not a historically low coffee price by any means, we were $1 higher in September, trading in the $4.30s.

Since September, the market has given relief to roasters, but not nearly enough to encourage longer-term buying. Discounted forward futures months have been a buying strategy at times, but roasters generally continue to find a $3+ market unattractive.

Going Forward

Last week’s six-month “C” market low, with settlements under $3.50, combined with concerns around nearby availability, is encouraging roasters to maintain short-to-medium-term inventory coverage. Positive supply forecasts should continue to erode price, but patience and planning will be required as there are no straight lines in the coffee market so expect some volatility to persist.

Continue to focus on nearby supply needs while planning for longer term coverage. Brazil’s are pouring back in, new crop Centrals will be available very soon, followed by Ethiopians, Kenyans, and hopefully more regular supply from Sumatra—all without tariffs!

Lean on your trader for usage and forecasting tools, estimated arrival times, and forward planning tips. Let’s be prepared to secure longer-term supply if the coffee market gives an opportunity to buy at more favorable levels. And as always, remember to keep quality in focus.