RNY Market Watch: December 2025

Welcome to our final edition of Market Watch for 2025! We’re here to provide you with the latest insights into the coffee “C” price and more as of December 2025.

Coffee “C” Price in 2025: A Year Unlike Any Other

2025, am I right? What a wild year in the coffee industry. Historically high prices (19 new records, to be exact), the first time since the 1970s that the coffee “C” price broke $4.00, and the first year in history averaging over $3.00. Weather concerns mainly in Brazil and Vietnam fueled market volatility, tariffs came and went, supply shifts happened…I could go on.

Well, let’s give ourselves a round of applause. Let’s give our coffee friends, coworkers, employees, and, most importantly, our customers a round of applause.

I’ve been in this industry for 22 years now. While that’s a drop in the bucket compared to many, it’s long enough to know that 2025 was different. Looking back, I have many thoughts on how 2025 affected the coffee world, but one feeling supersedes them all: resilience.

Resilience Across the Global Coffee Supply Chain

As the bridge between the vast world of coffee supply and demand, importers have a unique view. Within that large and diverse system of suppliers and consumers are many people looking to sustain themselves through the business of coffee, and we are no different. Acknowledging the historical challenges associated with low prices and marginalized farmers, 2024 began what felt like a role reversal, and 2025 pushed it even further. These wide trading ranges, market peeks and supply shifts created first-time challenges for many importers and roasters. With a few exceptions, we’re all still here, working with coffee and amazing people day in and day out.

Taking into account my general feelings of holiday gratitude, I’m optimistic for the coffee industry in 2026. For growers, millers, exporters, importers, banks, roasters, café owners, baristas, cold brew manufacturers and more, I think we’ll find a path to success doing what comes naturally to most of us in the coffee game—focusing on quality, and focusing on people. That’s the 2026 strategy.

Changes in Coffee “C” Price

Since our last report, when coffee tariffs were lifted on November 13th, the market has sold off significantly, from $4.00 to today’s level near $3.50, with a recent low of $3.3905 on December 22nd. This 60 cent-retracement reflects the market’s response to the impact and concern of the U.S. tariffs on coffee products. As the global flow of coffee is slowly restored, further decline may continue, though we hope it happens systematically, where the decline is consistent and relative to an increase in global inventory and overall supply.

Although global coffee supply continues to increase, certified stocks remain near multi-year lows, despite minor inflows of coffee following tariff removal. The slow increase shows the flaws of the ICE exchange’s certified stocks as a “measuring stick”. More importantly, it shows strong demand from roasters across the globe. If demand is strong, there is little incentive to tender coffee to the exchange, bolster certified stocks, and inevitably lower the market. With a large crop forecasted for Brazil in April–May 2026, we may see a significant change in the certified stock situation that will cause the market to further soften.

2026 Global Supply Outlook

More in-depth, boots-on-the-ground forecasts are typically measured in February. However, various independent market analyses suggest a possible recovery to a 70 million bag crop, supported by an on-year biennial cycle and favorable weather. Vietnam’s robusta production has also shown resilience, providing some relief to global supply challenges and limiting further upside pressure to arabica prices.

Supply Chain Disruptions

More important than market details, we want to acknowledge the significant challenges faced by growing regions in Indonesia due to recent destruction from Cylclone Senyar. Roads and bridges connecting Aceh and Medan in Sumatra were completely destroyed by flooding and landslides, cutting off ground transportation and severely limiting access to the affected areas. If you are able to join our efforts in supporting our coffee friends and partners, please consider donating to our GoFundMe.

Going Forward

Looking ahead to 2026, we remain optimistic but patient. Tariff-impacted inventory is moving out and being replaced with lower, non-tariffed inventory. However, this will take time since crop cycles vary throughout the world.

New crop Centrals will begin arriving in January through Q1, along with a flood of Brazilian coffees delayed by tariffs. Make sure to cover your nearby needs, especially with those coveted early arrivals. Since many roasters kept lighter forward inventory due to high prices and tariffs, short-term demand will remain strong. When you have time, discuss forward coverage with your trader! Take advantage of our forecasting tools and market knowledge, we’re here to help you solve coffee problems.

Above all else, Happy Holidays from all of us at Royal New York. Thank you for your support and partnership. We with you health, safety, and success in 2026.