RNY Market Watch: June 2026

Welcome to our newest edition of Market Watch! We’re here to provide you with the latest insight into the coffee “C” market, supply outlook & more as of June 2026.

Coffee Futures & Market Outlook

Coffee futures have trended lower for much of 2026. The market continues to transition away from the lingering 2024/2025 supply concerns and move toward expectations of improved global production. Much of that optimism is led by Brazil’s record harvest, which is expected to come online in early fall.

After trading near historic highs just months ago, the July ’26 “C” contract recently made a 19-month low, trading to $2.4270 on June 9th. As a result, the renewed buying interest from roasters bounced the market up slightly to $2.6510 just a few days later. While this price remains significantly below the highs of the last two years, this volatility serves as a reminder that coffee is very much a global market with influences far beyond Brazil.

Has the market found a floor price?

That’s the question everyone is asking. On one hand, forecasts continue to point toward a substantially larger Brazil crop compared to last season. Multiple industry estimates suggest global supply outlook could improve meaningfully during the second half of 2026 as fresh coffee enters the export pipeline. Some estimates, in fact, are as high as a 10M bag surplus for the 2026 crop compared to the meager 1M in 2025.

On the other hand, coffee has developed a habit of surprising us over the last several years. The market may end up caught between competing negative and supportive influences. For now, the market seems to be searching for equilibrium after an unprecedent period of volatility.

What does this market outlook mean for coffee roasters?

Today’s coffee market looks very different than it did six months ago. Without panic buying fueling record-high futures prices and U.S. tariffs disrupting domestic inventory, the cost of green coffee has been significantly relieved. U.S. inventories are being rebuilt, but it’s a challenge to maintain consistent supply while the U.S./Iran conflict continues to create global shipping challenges.

Roasters should take advantage of the market being at such a discount compared to recent levels. Focus on planning ahead instead of attempting to perfectly time market bottoms. If larger crop predictions prove correct, then additional pressure may create further buying opportunities down the line. However, weather events, logistics disruptions, or further stock declines could quickly change market sentiment.

As we move deeper into harvest season, expect Brazil to remain the primary driver of price direction and market sentiment in the coming months. While the coffee market may not be making headlines with all-time highs, volatility is far from over. Communicating regularly with your trading team remains the best tool in an ever-evolving market.